Interest rates in the US have recently begun to move higher after having collapsed last year following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. While there are numerous contributors to the move higher in interest rates, the primary catalysts are the expected increase in US Treasury issuance in order to fund the stimulus and the slow reopening of the US economy which may lead to increased economic growth. Given this backdrop, we look to explore the potential ramifications of higher US interest rates on equity prices and the resulting implications for client portfolios.

US core inflation likely will be volatile during 2021, as underlying economic forces continue to rebalance from the pandemic. The gap between actual and potential output will limit how much inflation can ultimately rise this year, leaving the Fed comfortable maintaining easy policy.

While we are favorable on the overall outlook for emerging markets (EMs), there is a wide disparity in the pace and stage of their recoveries from economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. While gross domestic product (GDP) expectations for all EMs decreased significantly because of the pandemic, this delta is significantly smaller for countries such as China that were among the first to experience widespread infections and implement measures to control the pandemic.

The term “infrastructure” has come to the forefront in recent months thanks to the Biden administration’s focus on renewing and improving America’s physical footprint through additional fiscal stimulus. It also has a dual aim of improving the pace of economic growth.