China’s economy and markets are not only too large to ignore, but they are now so large that there is a small but growing group of investors who approach China as a specific investment allocation.

As we settle into the first quarter of 2023, it’s worth discussing the current cycle and the implications for markets in 2023—but the bigger issue is the developing likelihood we have begun to shift into a different economic and market environment, marking a different era than we have seen in the decade-plus since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). 

CHICAGO and LONDON, 7 September 2022 – Northern Trust’s Capital Market Assumptions (CMA) Report, a multi-asset class, five-year investment outlook updated annually, expects global private equity to lead five-year annualized returns at 9.6%. Global high yield and U.K. equities are expected to lead bond and stock returns, at 7.5% each.  Returns are expected to be within a global growth environment that slows to 2.6% annually.

Napier Park Global is a Silver Sponsor of TEXPERS' 2022 Summer Educational Forum Aug. 21-23 in El Paso, Texas, and is sending Amit Sanghani, managing director and product specialist for the firm's global credit and real asset strategies.

Interest rates have been on a secular decline since the early-1980s after Paul Volcker pushed short-term rates to nearly 20% to beat back inflation.  Today, by comparison, the Fed Funds rate is targeted between 0.25% and 0.50%.  Unfortunately, as interest rates fell, pension discount rates have barely budged, leading to a widening “yield gap” between what plan fiduciaries expect to receive from the market and what the market can realistically provide.

Experience in emerging markets (EM) teaches the importance of knowing when to react quickly and when to ride out the storm.

It’s hard to miss recent news headlines about the “global energy crisis.” Resilient global demand and a lack of sufficient available supply have created an energy crunch that has pushed up global energy prices. Soaring oil, natural gas, and coal prices are happening just as the winter heating season approaches in the Northern Hemisphere and as rising inflation poses an increasing risk to global economic growth.

When it comes to tackling climate change, there is some consensus around what needs to be done—but solving for the how is much more complicated. In some ways, the urgency around this question has intensified amid the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. While extremely concerning from a humanitarian perspective, the conflict has also accelerated the thinking around energy security and energy independence.

TEXPERS members are trustees, administrators, professional service providers, employee groups, and associations engaged or interested in managing public employee retirement systems.

With headline inflation at multi-decade highs investors are rightly concerned and it bears an in-depth look. Some of the drivers of price rises have persisted longer than the Fed expected. But looking beyond the headlines at some of those drivers of the last twelve months could be useful.

In the world of safaris, “the big five” are highly prized among sightseers and photographers: the lion, leopard, black rhinoceros, elephant, and buffalo. But in investing, the big five could more aptly refer to the connected categories of growth, inflation, interest rates, valuations, and style.

2020 was an incredible year in the capital markets. However, in the wake of very strong performance for both stocks and bonds over the past 12-months, as well as the past decade, most traditional assets are looking expensive. At the same time, concerns over inflation continue to build, and questions about the trajectory of Fed policy dominate investment conversations.